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“there is compelling evidence that jobless workers’ odds of getting back to work drops precipitously after 5-6 months”
It would not be surprising to see the odds being rather different this time, when long-term unemployment has mostly resulted from government-mandated shutdowns.

As Ken Schulz observes, this time is supposed to be different. Isn't Larry Summers weighing in with the suggestion that our problem will soon be "overheating"? That said, I apparently work in the midst of an entire staff of people who ought to have scored CRS 75. They're excellent workers, highly motivated, and very responsible. (In contrast, the kids working on part-time student visas are probably shoe-ins to hit much higher scores, and they're goofballs who remind me of me at their age.)

The only reason My sub-75 common-clay-of-the-new-west fellow employees are not making a middle class income is that my employer was able to get away with a two-tier contract in 1998. How that came to happen, and its consequences over time, seems like to have a much stronger bearing on immigrant earnings in the modern Canadian economy than these test scores if my experience is any indication.

Thanks for your comment Erik. The CRS points ("test scores" as you call them) are undoubtedly predictive of earnings. Certainly not perfectly predictive, but predictive in a similar way to how the educational attainment of Canadian-born workers is predictive of their future earnings.

Hi, Mikal. I'm not arguing that low CRS points don't correlate with earnings. I'm pointing out that they correlate with low earnings because most of the people my employer has hired in the last two decades have low CRS scores, and those hired since approximately 2010 aren't qualified to jump up to the top tier in a two-tier wage structure. You can't make a claim to a correlation between earning potential and CRS score because earning potential has been determined by collective bargaining. Those who were able to leverage periods of low unemployment are doing well. Those who didn't time their Canadian labour force entry correctly, aren't.

We know what the solution is: Full employment (and a tolerance for high inflation to accommodate it). We're basically faffing around the problem to avoid that solution.

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