« Has Canada's female employment rate maxed out? | Main | Bicycle Disequilibrium Theory »

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

That was quick! Well done!

The first thing that caught my eye was the second graph. If I'm interpreting it correctly, and with the benefit of hindsight, Governing Council did better, by adding its own judgement to staff projections, than if it had simply followed staff projections in setting the overnight rate target. It loosened more quickly than staff projections recommended, but still not quickly enough, in hindsight.

We get a similar sort of story in the 4th graph. Staff projections were telling Governing Council to tighten, which it did at first, then wisely (in hindsight) decided not to tighten further, despite staff projections recommending it do so.

If I understand them correctly (I may not) staff projections for the output gap are actually a bit less interesting. Because the staff projections ask the question "what would the policy rate need to do to bring inflation back to the 2% target roughly 2 years from now?" And that normally requires bringing output back to potential over the same sort of horizon. So a closing output gap is baked into the cake (if I've got that right). It's the projection for the policy rate that contains the important information. It's like solving the model backwards.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

Search this site

  • Google

    WWW
    worthwhile.typepad.com
Blog powered by Typepad