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Good! Thanks for this. Some data to help me put my last post in context.

Assuming average provincial NGDP growth of 4%, if they can keep the deficit below 4% x 40% = 1.6% of NGDP (or about $12 billion if I've done the math right) we would see a slowly declining debt/GDP ratio. But, as you say, it would be hard to do that in a recession. And then there's the future health care costs of us aging boomers...

Given a debt at about $300 billion and 4 percent NGDP growth you can add up to $12 billion to the debt and the debt to GDP ratio will decline. However, the net debt can rise by more than the official deficit because the provincial government now does its capital budgeting differently. Thus, the province could run a balanced operating budget but still add to the debt. Over the last few years the net debt in some years has gone up by much more than the year's deficit because of new infrastructure spending projects. As I mentioned, the province plans to add billions in capital spending and that will not be reflected in operating budgets except for higher debt service costs.

Dear Professor

What does the graph look like if you adjust the nominal amounts for inflation (maybe use CPI to get sort-of constant dollars)\

I did this to our Toronto House Prices and it really shows a lot

I cannot paste it here - but it's the second one on this blog page https://unclebobexplains.wordpress.com/2018/03/10/part-6-inflation-interest-rates-foe-or-friend-treb-1969-thru-feb-2018-the-very-real-component-of-appreciation-that-gets-you-nuthin-except-a-bigger-number-2-low-interest-rates-a-l/

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