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Inflows to NL 2011 to 2014: Hebron and Long Harbour megaprojects.

Very interesting, thanks. I would expect a post-2014 exercise to come up with something pretty different given recent developments in inter-provincial migration. It will be very interesting to see what happens with the Toronto numbers given the continued sharp rise in housing prices. I believe that Guelph, on the other side of the green belt was the fastest growing Ontario CMA between the 2011 and 2016 censuses.

Luke - Thanks. I wasn't sure if it was a question of NL drawing people in, or of NL expatriates coming back home after being laid off in the oil and gas sector.

Patrick - yes, I suspect extrapolating 2014-2017 trends would give a very different picture. I'll probably come back to this and see how the estimates for the stable distributions changed.

Toronto isn't such a surprise. As largest city, it's often the first landing point for immigrants (a place they've heard of) and then they fan out once established in Canada.

Newfoundland is likely driven by similar forces to Alberta. High resource prices caused significant in migration, though in Newfoundland's case the makeup of their arrivals was probably mostly Newfies coming home.

To expound on Neil's point, New York City is usually a huge loser in net internal migration despite having a growing population, this is due to strong international net immigration. Similar factors may be at play for Canada's major cities, and at a provincial level, for Ontario and Quebec.

Echoing Neil and Jmcdon10: Quebec's separate immigration system. Of immigrants landing there, probably higher percentage that have planned to fan out upon landing.

Curious about the Ottawa/Gatineau dichotomy. It's kind of puzzling that near identical economic base would have such a big gap in direction, but on the ground it does look like Ottawa bedroom burbs keep pushing E/S/W much faster than their Gatineau counterparts. Maybe the culture/language and the lack of transport routes north of the river do make a difference.

The big metropolises gaining in international migrants (plus an extremely arrogant intellectual class) while losing their domestic populations outwards is happening all over the western world (except Japan but then remember Kuznets: "There are four kinds of countries in the world: developed countries, undeveloped countries, Japan and Argentina".)
In the current political climate, it is not ultimately a good thing.

It's too bad that this data isn't available at the CA or sub-CMA level as the rough numbers raise many questions.
For example in Barrie we have a big flow back and forth with Toronto, which is most likely flows to Toronto's (relatively) cheaper suburbs, but you can't confirm that from the crude data. Also the "Rest of Ontario" category attracts many migrants in both directions. Most of these flows are likely to nearby Angus & Essa which added many new homes in the period, but once again this can't be verified.
Another metric I thought was interesting was gross flows. At 10.2% of the 2011 population, Barrie was the most volatile place in Canada. The rate seems to generally be higher with smaller communities going through growth spurts and/or economic woes. Given the unprecedented growth we are enduring locally, I'd expect a significantly higher rate when the 2015/17 data becomes available. In some ways I imagine this data could be seen as a proxy for local dynamic conditions and the impact of development or changing economic conditions on existing residents.

Oil peaked around June 2014 before falling off a cliff and has just recently found its way to ~50% of that: What month are the 2014 numbers from? I am wondering if the Alberta 2014 #s are showing peak population?

Wikipedia shows some 2016 pop #s that indicate Alberta is still going strong population wise - not everybody scrambled back to the Maritimes!

It would seem that in time the Alberta experience might be useful for looking at the flexibility/elasticity of labour supply.

The flows are July 1 to July 1, so the last observation would have been almost exactly when oil prices stared to fall.

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