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Eric Gyhsels had a paper that remarked the same thing - start dates for recessions seemed to be concentrated in the fall. It was the basis for a lot of his work on seasonality. We're accustomed to stripping out the seasonal cycle, assuming that there's no information there about the business cycle; perhaps we shouldn't.

Not sure if it is a global phenomenon, but there is also the election cycle to consider.

I took the data for U. S. real GDP found here:

I then created a 12 month ( 6 months each direction ) around each presidential inaugural month (Jan 2017, Jan 2013, Jan 2009, etc.)back to 1947.

Average Real GDP year / year growth inside the 12 month window around presidential inauguration: 2.94%
Average Real GDP year / year growth outside the 12 month window around presidential inauguration: 3.22%

Maybe. We have to be careful with these kinds of observations. Look elsewhere effects are a big deal. Both CMS and ATLAS at the LHC saw a combined bump that was nearly 4 standard deviations above background. This summer we learned it was a statistical fluke - the bump went away with more data, no new physics. When you measure so many things stuff will just stand out.

Banking crisis season aside, perhaps world wars only start in late summer ;)

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