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I think that's the better criticism of Hudak's platform, namely that it's not terribly ambitious Mind you, if his opponents think it unreasonable, that doesn't bode well for their expectations of the future of the Ontario economy.

Nothing, however, makes up for the Tory's inability to do math. (Also looks bad on us economists, Hudak has an MA in economics).

Mike: my guess would be that with the baby boomers retiring, the 15+ labour force participation rate would tend to decline, simply from composition effects. A bigger percentage of 65+ people and a smaller percentage of 15-65 people, within that 15+ group.

Nick: Good point. I also did it excluding the 65+ group (who conceivably may be working more then). It makes a difference, but still well over 900,000 jobs, if we get to pre-recession employment rates for the 15-64 group. The adjustment for the difference in the reference group forecast and the Labour Force Survey makes much more difference, but I don't understand why that appears to be necessary.

That does put the statement into perspective - so his platform is actually saying "no tangible net improvements" when he says "a million jobs".

When Livio posted his musings that a Million Jobs was possible back in January I had to point out that the plan seemed implausible even with the few details that were provided:

"As a professional economist, if someone came up to me and presented that plan as their baseline for the next 8 years they would have significant difficulty defending it.

But this policy isn't for professional economists."

As the defense now seems to be '???, underpants, MaRS' seems I was right.


Gratuz:"so his platform is actually saying "no tangible net improvements" when he says "a million jobs"." Exactly the Liberal platform in QUÉbec last election. And they were duly elected.

"so his platform is actually saying "no tangible net improvements" when he says "a million jobs"

Actually, I think the platform is "you could do worse!". As an aside, if Hudak loses,I'm going to run to replace him on the slogan "Bob Smith: You've done worse"

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