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Given that Carney becomes governor of a central bank, which is not part of the Euro, in a country which discusses currently about exiting the European Union, because for them the existing integration is already too much, one wonders in what parallel phantasy universe he lives.

He has really wasted no time to make a complete clown of himself. He has shown is extreme ignorance and arrogant character. He is very delusional about his role.

There will be no fiscal transfers, and there is no need nor would it be even wise to harmonize unemployment insurance, given all the other, especially massive labor law differences.

WE, dear Livio, are sick and tired of people who said "I" when they privatized the gains, and now say "we" when they want to pick my wallet and socialize the losses.

Genauer, you should really read his speech, because for the most part the "fantasy" world he describes in his speech is the reality of the Canadian federation (and, the world of other successful monetary unions, like the US) - which is for the most part what the speech focuses on.

I agree with tou that we aren't ever likely to see anywhere near the degree of political and economic integration in Europe that we see in stable monetary unions (like Canada), which is why the Euro project was doomed from the beginning (I've never been a fan of the Euro-zone). But then again, the Euro-zone will never be a stable monetary union. That's a point that hasn't sunk in with European leaders yet, many of whom still maintain the illusion that they can have a common currency without further fiscal and economic integration.

Another interesting article.

If you lot up here keep on writing them then I will keep on highlighting them!

By the way I keep on thinking I will see you in the Serie A!!

Mark Carney is the incarnation of hubris.

He became CB governor begin of 2008.

At that time the Canadian government ran a (slight) surplus, the exchange rate to the US Dollar was close to parity, inflation well under control (2.2%)

And this was the merit of people like liberal “come hell or highwater” Paul Martin, and, substantially and certainly not to forget, the commodity boom in the 2000s.

Canada is presently running an unsustainable 3% current account deficit, and Germany a 6% (of GDP) Plus. Canada now even runs a 3% budget deficit during these boom times.
And you repaid Martin the favor by not reelecting him, just as we in 2005 with our chancellor Schröder : - )

Yesterday we celebrated the 150th birth day of our social democratic party (SPD), indulged in feeling one, and realized that is was the social democrat Schröder, who did all the hard and unpopular decisions, cutting real pensions by 10 – 15%, Hartz IV, and much more. Without him, our government debt would now also be at 120% GDP. And it was a conservative government before, which tried to keep the benefits high, exhausting all possibilities to raise taxes to the maximum, and beyond. I did pay a marginal tax rate of 60% on a sub-median PhD student income in 1995, even without tithe.

And in true fashion to Mark Carney’s upbringing as a Goldman Sachs guy (I was tempted to write goon), he was not shy of conflict of interest in Russia 1998, he takes credit for what he has contributed little.

Mark Carney and the Bank of England fully deserve each other.

Given the 8% budget deficit the UK runs, after some “blood bath budget” in name only, he will preside over some pretty drastic changes in the UK, being the ideal foreigner scapegoat for drastic benefit cuts.

That he wants to serve only 5 years instead of the regular 8 year term, despite his very young age, probably reflects the awareness, that at that time they will probably burn Maple Leaf flags on Trafalgar Square. Makes me wonder what they will sing instead of “Ding, Dong, the witch is dead”. Any suggestions ?

@ Bob Smith

I read Carney’s speech, the point is just, we did all the same prudent things in Northern/ Center Europe, and certainly do not need his ignorant advice.
This tentacle of the giant vampire squid will not find a way into our systems.

Bob,
we had stable currency exchange rates with the Austrian shilling and others, for many decades, without sharing any treaties, or whatever. The Danes run a very close peg. We certainly don’t need advice from people, who know soo extremely little about what worked in the past.

@ Livio de Matteo

Wiki says:
" Mission civilisatrice (the French for "civilisatory mission"; in Portuguese: Missão civilizadora) is a rationale for intervention or colonization,”

I hope you realize now how deeply inappropriate and offensive your thread title is.

@Genauer
I am aware of the historical use of the term during the 19th century colonial era as I took an undergrad course in international history years ago. That era is fortunately over. The use of the term in this context was meant to highlight my feeling that it was a bit presumptuous and not terribly astute of Mark Carney to suggest that "the Canadian way" could be so easily applied to European fiscal policy issues given the complexity of the situation in Europe. The term in the title was also placed in "quotation marks" to highlight that it was not meant in its literal historical use. The literal idea of a Canadian "civilizing mission" in Europe is pretty ridiculous.

Livio,

I am sorry that I missed out on your irony.

Carney is just such a typical example of the typical ameriCon economist, from the foaming left like Paul Krugman, over Mark Thoma, to Reinhart/Rogoff and Hamilton.

People who know so little beyond their economics sandbox, their solid disregard for the law and treaties, property rights and traditions of other people, and dish out criminal advice with such ease.

Together with some solid hate mongering we see from some "elites" of some of our southern neighbors, we have some nerves too.

But, well, according to the BBC popularity survey http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22624104, we are still the most popular, with Canada a very close second : -).
I expected to come in more like 3rd or 4th this year, and probably should be more temperated.
Especially when the US government now takes the very unthankful role of beating tax honesty into some tax havens.

We Germans still need a little more time to get used to the role of blamed big bad boy, and take it with a measured stride. But so far Germany dishing out advice to others in Europe, is the best way to make them resist reasonable action. So far, so bad.

And Frances deserves a more thoughtful contribution to her wonderful post on revealed preferences.

"I read Carney’s speech, the point is just, we did all the same prudent things in Northern/ Center Europe, and certainly do not need his ignorant advice."

Re-read it, neither Europe, nor Northern/Central Europe have not done all (or most) of the things that Carney recommends for a successful monetary union. I understand why, because those are not politically feasible in Europe. Therefore, it will not have a successful monetary union. QED

"we had stable currency exchange rates with the Austrian shilling and others, for many decades, without sharing any treaties, or whatever. The Danes run a very close peg."

Great, you managed a stable currency exchange rate with two tiny economies that are physically, economically and culturally integrated with Germany. Big deal, that doesn't give us much guidance on how to manage a monetary union between physically, economically and culturally diverse jurisdictions. The United States and Canada do.

Livio: "The literal idea of a Canadian "civilizing mission" in Europe is pretty ridiculous."

I don't know, we played an important role in "civilizing" Europe between 1939 and 1945.

Something seems wrong with those unemployment benefits as percentage of previous earning data. Maybe they include welfare type unemplyoment benefits, averaging the insurance part with the welfare part that replaces the insurance later when the insurance runs out? Or they compare wage costs (to the employer) with benefits?


Cross country unemployment insurance faces more problem than just equal benefit levels. What about black market labour and enforcment levels against it? The Spanish labour market looks much worse from the outside than it is in reality because black market labour plays such a major role, with tactical support from authorities for example. Sort of a dirty version 2 tier labour market - regular employees, typically older with high paying union contracts and extensive social protection vs an irregular black market labour market for the young. Unemployment insurance payments on top of irregular work and inner family transfers then soften the social consequences.

German culture has the most direct communcation style and the strongest rule orientation in the world (expect Switzerland maybe). So aside the interest driven demands to break rules to hide transfer payments to oneself, there is genuine miscommunication at work.

Note this does not mean German culture is wrong because everyone else is different. Quite the contrary. First, this works quite well in Germany, in particular compared to those further away on the spectrum. Second, the reason German culture developed this way is that it was the best way to communicate and cooperate within a very cultural fragmented area with a weak till non existant central government. Thus German culture has developed as a solution to the same problems the EU now faces on a larger scale. Diplomats use high context indirect communication for international communication, but they are all parts of the same diplomat sub culture, that often has problems to communicate with their own socities at home.

This is not to say German culture is always at some optimum as far as such exists at all (economists have an unfortunate bias to think there is one best way to everything), but it sure would not hurt if the new European culture is much closer to German culture than to Spanish or British culture.


"Relative to our peers, Canada is working."

Great level of aspiration, when one rides a basic resource boom while the rest of the developed world is in huge trouble :-).

No Canada does not work, not compared to what could be achieved under such lucky circumstances.


"
-
2
-
Why did we fare better?
O
ur outperformance reflects
four
critical
advantages
:

responsible fiscal policy,

sound monetary policy,

a resilient financial system, and

a monetary union that works."

Or it could have been the basic resource boom that took off again after a short interruption in 2009. (China was good to Canada, just like it was good to Germany, the logic of the Agenda 2010 did all those great things narative escapes me just like this Canada internal factor naratives, both countries rode Chinese demand for goods they happend to be specialiced in)


The Euro is based on the following 2 principles, which are not up for any majority vote, constituted in the governing Maastricht treaty and TFEU:

1. no bail out

2. no money printing, the sole target is price stability , as in <= 2.0% inflation

We would have never joined without that.

Given that we have nation states with different economies, social systems and national budgets vastly larger than the common EU budget (about 50 % GDP vs < 1%), this is the only way to run that, without creating massive moral hazard to run beggar thy neighbor policy, and pushing national public debt onto innocent victim nation, who keep budget discipline.

There was a 10 – 20 year convergence period before the Euro went active in 2002, when the southern nations finally showed some discipline and were allowed in.

The governing principles were not optional, membership was, and originally only 12 of the now 27 EU members joined.

The wealth / income ratio of countries like Italy and Spain is substantially higher than Germany, and they can pay their national debt easily, by taking moderate property taxes, like 2% per year from their own rich.

If they would reduce their generous pension levels (78% net replacement rate vs 43% in Germany) and public wages , they could balance their budgets.

Just one example, Spain has labor laws, which resulted in an unemployment rate of 10% even during extreme boom times like 2005, and they fostered an immigration of 15% between 2000 and 2007, miss- or unskilled.

Having some 15% of the workforce (vs 6% sustainable) in the area of construction and related, overbuilding demand for many years to come.

Now they have some 25% unemployment, quelle surprise, despite a GDP drop of “only” 5%, and hix pointed out here, that and why this number is severely misleading, if you compare that to Canadian or German numbers. They are of course fully responsible to address the consequences of their actions.

To demand that I pay one cent to that, is a criminal attack, the attempt is punishable.

The problem is not if some Bob Smith in this blog draws wrong analogies to your Canadian constitutional situation.

The severe problem is, that the vast majority of anglo-american economists, like Rogoff or Carney, bother so little to get the relevant facts, like private wealth, or think about the consequences of certain actions, but draw simple, but false analogies to their own national situation, and then dish out deeply anti-constitutional and anti-social “advice”, in public writing.

They are of course fully responsible to address the consequences of their actions.

The addressing of which, in their case, requires money-printing, because the other options appear to require violent revolution. The social contracts in these countries are broken in order to keep the monetary contract in the Eurozone---you think this can just be solved by a change of policy with no democratic legitimacy? That people will take the reduction of pensions so that they can live like German pensioners lying down?

(And I recognize the irony of my question...it is the heart of the problems with the construction of the Maastricht treaty. The reforms required to make it work require that the electorates in one country or another be overridden.)

So yes, for the Eurozone to work, genauer, money must be taken in some way from you and given to the overpaid Spanish pensioner. Somehow.

Rarely have I seen it so openly spelled out as by Mandos here.

That the wish of some Spaniards to continue forever to live beyond their means, is something that might override fundamental and inalienable treaty and property rights of relatively less well of Germans,

the implicit racism and the explicit criminality in that,

is what we have see now not only from Spain, but several of our southern neighbors.

What left us at first speechless, was then followed by the stability pact, describing deficit limits, the ESM, which couples any CREDIT we would give to strict conditionality, and eliminating any possibility of the Central Bank to buy one cent of any government debt against our veto.

The whole idea that a community as the Euro Area could ever work with such crime at the core,

is now clearly ended with the template Cyprus, which made clear that the honest and law abiding large majority in the Euro Area is now perfectly willing to cut off liquidity and subsequently purge from Europe anybody who would try such attempts again.

I think the challenge is that Goldman Sachs savages like Carney learn fundamental law and decency, and that this part of the world is not run for the benefit of bankers and the criminal fraction of their clients.

The whole idea that a community as the Euro Area could ever work with such crime at the core, is now clearly ended with the template Cyprus, which made clear that the honest and law abiding large majority in the Euro Area is now perfectly willing to cut off liquidity and subsequently purge from Europe anybody who would try such attempts again.

Which is why the Eurozone cannot work, because Germans see it this way. Lots of parts of Canada, USA, etc, "live beyond their means" at the expense of other parts of the country. In Canada we have the notion of "have" and "have not" provinces and orderly transfers take place from one to the other.

The solution to the problem is to pay the German pensioner more to offset the amount transferred, ie, for so-called "fiscal discipline" and the hunt for competitiveness in Germany to be reduced somewhat, but this is not likely to occur.

As this goes on, the descent into violence in Greece continues, and reactionary forces are starting to take hold in France, due to the inability of Hollande to press for fiscal balances.

If Germans want to impoverish their pensioners and workers, why should other countries do so to keep up?

Canada has a younger population. One way to look at this crisis is, is depowering the developing parts of the EU. Bringing nurses from Spain the Germans building (well bed-spaced and lit) hospitals could be one minor banker goal. There are various potential and existing Crowns here that would be influenced by a Carney lobby. The temporary visa we have in Canada would work in Germany as Germany is aging. Maybe these policies could be 1st prototyped in the Rhineland.

A question, do you want to try to bring back the Mediterreanian tourism sectors or do you want to retrain for something else? England has a lot of developing countries in its sphere of influence whereas Canada really only has Haiti. England has high child poverty rates but most of the low hanging policy fruit has already been plucked: impressive gas tax.


Mandos,

how often do I have to state the simple evidence:

The European Union is a collection of separate nation states, and not one nation like Canada or the US.

And therefore all those false, simple analogies do not apply. Period.

How we in Germany organize ourselves and divvy up the cake (workers, entrepreneurs, social minimum, pensioners, etc.), is simply not the business of anybody else. And we have a > 90% consensus about it. And when we see, that the Canadian social minimum for the standard 4-head family is at just 43% of the German level, as we have seen here recently clearly evidenced, I don’t think I want to hear any “social lecture”. As an infidel I do cite for you the Bible, Matthew
http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2013/02/why-is-inflation-finally-falling.html?cid=6a00d83451688169e2017ee88804f6970d#comment-6a00d83451688169e2017ee88804f6970d

The laws and treaties for the ECB are clear and good, and will not be changed to enable crime.

When I look at Surveys like Pew
http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2013/05/Pew-Research-Center-Global-Attitudes-Project-European-Union-Report-FINAL-FOR-PRINT-May-13-2013.pdf

page3: Excepting Merkel, Most Political Leaders in Disrepute

page7: Budget Cuts Not Stimulus, overwhelming 81% in France
page 25: France / Britain opposing bailouts

page 29: Merkel getting higher marks than own leaders

I certainly do not feel that we are alone.


@ Mandos

When I look at the details of the BBC 2013 Survey, Germany is the most popular country:
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/2013%20Country%20Rating%20Poll.pdf
Germany page 19, views by large EU countries LARGE AND RISING, and especially in France at overwhelming 81%

I see the vast majority of good character, fiscally conservative, and law abiding people of Europe with us, and only some tiny (<5%, maybe 10 % on a good day) criminal left in France opposing, whose language (“reactionary forces”) you, Mandos, are using .

If the Goldman Sachs representatives, like Mark Carney, or speculators like Soros, do not like, that they can not milk us, GOOD, and these tiny < 0.01% can not even vote in the Euro Area : - )

@ Keystone Garter

We hope that some people from high unemployment areas are coming to us, learn the trade, Germany is now starting bilateral apprenticeship programs in Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, US, Brazil, because of the notorious inactivity of the EU bureaucracy.

We do 4-year training programs for mainland Chinese nurses, because so far the interest from the EU is not high enough.

What we don’t want is to depopulate our neighbors from their eager and intelligent.
But all Citizens of Europe are entitled to study for free (last tiny fees are dropping this summer) at our excellent public universities (my Alma Mater alone has more Nobel prizes in STEM than all of Canada)

Keystone, the problem is, if Germany makes recommendations for what to do, the tiny ruling classes in other countries are all up in furry, it is counterproductive.

We are pretty confident, that the hearts and minds of the large majorities are with us.

Labor mobility will increase all around Europe, and this is good, but this is a complex thing.

As I learned last Summer in “Arrival City” personal transfers are often more important and efficient than public transfers (e.g. money-go-round.eu), just to tick of one item.

This is why the euro is doomed to fail. You cannot have a single currency without a single polity to deal with the consequences of the single currency policy. Each and every part in a single currency area has to make some sort of compromise at times with a suboptimal inflation and interest policy and that's where transfers come in.

@ Keystone Garter

We hope that some people from high unemployment areas are coming to us, learn the trade, Germany is now starting bilateral apprenticeship programs in Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, US, Brazil, because of the notorious inactivity of the EU bureaucracy.
We do 4-year training programs for mainland Chinese nurses, because so far the interest from the EU is not high enough.

What we don’t want is to depopulate our neighbors from their eager and intelligent.
But all Citizens of Europe are entitled to study for free (last tiny fees are dropping this summer) at our excellent public universities (my Alma Mater alone has more Nobel prizes in STEM than all of Canada)

Keystone, the problem is, if Germany makes recommendations for what to do, the tiny ruling classes in other countries are all up in furry, it is counterproductive.
We are pretty confident, that the hearts and minds of the large majorities are with us.

Labor mobility will increase all around Europe, and this is good, but this is a complex thing.

As I learned last Summer in “Arrival City” personal transfers are often more important and efficient than public transfers (e.g. money-go-round.eu), just to tick of one item.

@ Determinant

When I look at the low level of factual knowledge, and even lower level of understanding the mechanics, and nearly non existing understanding of history and elementary decency between central banks, like Mark Carney showed, the Reinhart/Rogoff vs Krugman theatrics, I am pretty sure that nearly nobody in mainland Europe cares anymore about these people.

3 years ago, I looked to US economists, with all their nobel prizes and long data series, today, I just laugh.

The last 2 weeks statements were extremely eye opening for us here. The emperors have no clothes.


@ Mandos
When I look at the details of the BBC 2013 Survey, Germany is the most popular country:
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/2013%20Country%20Rating%20Poll.pdf
Germany page 19, views by large EU countries LARGE AND RISING, and especially in France at overwhelming 81%

I see the vast majority of good character, fiscally conservative, and law abiding people of Europe with us, and only some tiny (<5%, maybe 10 % on a good day) left in France opposing, whose language (“reactionary forces”) you, Mandos, are using .

If the Goldman Sachs representatives, like Mark Carney, or speculators like Soros, do not like, that they can not milk us, GOOD, and these tiny < 0.01% can not even vote in the Euro Area : - )

test

@ Determinant

When I look at the low level of factual knowledge, and even lower level of understanding the mechanics, and nearly non existing understanding of history and elementary decency between central banks, like Mark Carney showed, the Reinhart/Rogoff vs Krugman theatrics, I am pretty sure that nearly nobody in mainland Europe cares anymore about these people.

3 years ago, I looked to US economists, with all their nobel prizes and long data series, today, I just laugh.

The last 2 weeks statements were extremely eye opening for us here. The emperors have no clothes.

The emperor being the EU and Euro, of course.

Krugman was and is still right; Carney was making a speech based on his experience of being Central Banker in a country with widely divergent regional economies.

how often do I have to state the simple evidence:

The European Union is a collection of separate nation states, and not one nation like Canada or the US.

And therefore all those false, simple analogies do not apply. Period.

This is simply wrong. The EU, specifically the Euro area, now has a single currency. Each and every country gave up a very large part of its sovereignty when it adopted the Euro. And Germany could very well get out-voted in EU decisions, as any member of a club can. Ireland put up with sub-optimal interest rates for years, it fuelled inflation there which ended badly.

If you do not want the mechanics of a single banking and transfer system to buttress the currency system and make it work, then Europe had no business whatsoever forming a currency union. Further if Germany cannot accept that being part of a larger union and losing part of its sovereignty (over currency, fiscal and transfer issues) actually means something and accept compromise policies, it had no business getting into the Euro either.

trying for the 3rd time:

@ Mandos
When I look at the details of the BBC 2013 Survey, Germany is the most popular country:
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/2013%20Country%20Rating%20Poll.pdf
Germany page 19, views by large EU countries LARGE AND RISING, and especially in France at overwhelming 81%

I see the vast majority of good character, fiscally conservative, and law abiding people of Europe with us, and only some tiny (5%, maybe 10 % on a good day) left in France opposing, whose language (“reactionary forces”) you, Mandos, are using .

If the Goldman Sachs guys, like Mark Carney, or speculators like Soros, do not like, that they can not milk us, GOOD, and these tiny 0.01% can not even vote in the Euro Area : - )

@ Determinant

nobody who decides about something, touches Krugman even with a nine foot pole.

Carney was dishing out advice, to a currency area , which is not his business, and in topics, which are totally forbidden to him.

The EU has many currencies.

Germany can not be outvoted on treaties, which require universal consent.

Germany has a blocking veto on any ESM loan.

Germany certainly will not agree, nor can it be forced on any transfer.

All Euro countries signed up to the treaty as it is: no bail out, no inflation/ money printing

The Target 2 transfer system works with many currencies, and criminals can be traced and cut of in an instant, from Friday closing ours to before breakfast Saturday morning, just exercised with Cyprus.
They threw some tantrum, the former central bank governor, Simon van Nordens friend Orphanides, another MIT / Harvard guy, is on the run,
And all but Luxemburg voted for the action.


You are talking about things, you simply know nothing about, just spewing your gut feelings. Ever read the TFEU, ESM treaties? Which court decides, what police would go into the building to block any unlawful business?

Why Putin signed the same day a loan extension with a sub inflation interest rate? Just some relevant knowledge?

Mark Carney is now Governor of the Bank of England and therefore will say plenty on Europe, as his predecessors have before him. And the UK is part of the EU, last time I checked.

In case you missed it, the UK is not part of the Euro.

Did you ever hear a Bernanke dishing out policy descriptions on something like unemployment insurance laws to the US Congress?

Often. Unemployment is a specific mandate of the Federal Reserve.

In case you missed it, the UK is not part of the Euro.

The EU consumes 50% of the UK's exports, so EU health is very much Britain's and Mark Carney's problem.

Determinant

Since you seem to be thinking so much in analogies, I ll give you 2:

a) Relevance of Mark Carney

When I look up trade fractions at the CIA World Factbook, then the UK is to Germany only 1/3 as important as Canada is to the US. The other ways it is somewhat different : - )

I googled shortly, if any US politician ever mentioned Mark Carney, to no avail, but maybe you find something.

I found only http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/another-goldman-creature-given-vital-government-post-20121206

To what meetings of the Euro Area will he be invited, not to mention to be even allowed to utter a word?

b) your ideas about any kind of transfer union

Just Imagine I am a single mother, with a 4, 3, and 2 year old, I have to take with me while shopping. At the cashier, the 4 year old is throwing a tantrum to get some sweets.

Will I give in?

I don’t think so. Because if I would, she would do this all the time, and the 3 and the 2 year old would learn rapidly, and I would live in hell.

Now some unemployed named, lets say, Determinant comes along and tells me I should buy the sweet little girl some sweets.

On whose side would the other mothers in line and the cashier be? I would give you some earwash, and you feel lucky, that we don’t have your liver for breakfast.

You should read the stellar 80% approval ratings we have from the French people (links given above) pretty much this way.

This is Europe. 2500 years ago, the Greeks were light years ahead of you now, in terms of trickery and treachery. And since we sent a Bavarian prince 1835 to Greece, we know that they haven’t forgotten anything : - )

One Does Not Simply Walk into Mordor http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r21CMDyPuGo

I made no analogies.

And your last post made no grammatical sense. It also had no meaning.

And since we sent a Bavarian prince 1835 to Greece, we know that they haven’t forgotten anything : - )

King Otto was thrown off the throne in 1863 and a Danish prince invited instead as King George I. King George is much more fondly remembered, his wife, Queen Olga, made a point of appearing in Greek ethnic dress which was very popular.

But the Greek royal family lost the throne in 1974 anyway.

@ Determinant

since you had only problems with my grammar, I think you got the message.

@ Bob Smith

a somewhat different take on the behavior of those tiny 0.1% you mentioned.

your words: "civilizing" Europe between 1939 and 1945

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/new-book-reveals-dark-side-of-american-soldiers-in-liberated-france-a-902266.html

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