Measuring Popes

With the Conclave of Cardinals about to convene to choose a successor to Benedict XVI, it is worth taking a look at some statistics regarding the line of popes over the course of 2000 years.  Based on the list in the Catholic Encyclopedia, Benedict XVI was the 267^th pope in a line stretching back to Peter and his eight year reign was actually slightly above the average tenure for all popes but below average for those who have served more recently.  Indeed, the reign of popes probably provides an interesting long-term perspective on longevity and the standard of living given that since popes usually served until death, the length of reign is likely correlated with longevity.

  For all 267 popes stretching from the year 0 to 2013, the average reign was 7.45 years (the median reign was 6 years) with a range from 0 years (which is actually a term less than one year ranging from a few days to a few months) to a maximum of about 35 years for Peter, the first pope.  However, the modern era has seen a definite increase in the length of papal tenure.  For the period since 1750, the average reign has been 14.2 years (with a median of 13 years) and a range from 0 years (John Paul I) to 32 years (Pius IX). If one goes back to the first 250 years of popes, the average reign is 11.0 years (with a median of 10 years) and a range from 1 year (Anterus) to 35 years (Peter).  These numbers suggest that the tenure of popes was actually relatively high initially, declined and then began to rise again at least during the modern era. 

Figure 1 examines the data with a LOWESS smooth of papal reign length versus year and there is indeed a u-shaped pattern.  The average length of reign at first declines and reaches a minimum approximately around the year 1000 and then begins to rise again.  Popes would likely have a lifestyle characterized by a relatively higher socio-economic standing and yet in the aftermath of the fall of Rome and the onset of the “Dark Ages”, even they are marked by a decline in longevity as proxied by length of reign.   The period between the years 750 and 1000 seems to be a particular low point with an average reign of 5.1 years (with a median of 3 years) and a range from 0 (Stephen II and Valentine) to 23 (Adrian I).

As an added bonus, I have also provided a frequency distribution of papal reigns from year 0 to 2013.  Figure 2 shows that very long reigns are indeed exceptional and 71 percent of popes have served for ten years or less.  About 19.5 percent reigned for 1 year or less but the tendency to serve one year or less was about the same before and after the year 1000.  About 19.3 percent of reigns were ten years or less before the year 1000 whereas 19.8 percent were ten years or less after 1000.  However, the tendency to serve one year or less drops dramatically after 1750 with only 5.6 percent of reigns being that tenure.  Indeed, the only pope since 1750 to serve very short tenures were Pius VIII (1829-1830) and  Pope John Paul I in 1978 who only served 33 days before his demise. 

Overall, it appears the modern era and industrial revolution were good for papal longevity.  However, it is also interesting to note that if papal reigns are indeed a good proxy for general longevity and living standards, then the period of the Roman Empire for the years 0 to 250 was also able to generate a surprisingly high longevity and living standard.

 

 

 

 

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Comments

[Mike]

My gut tells me that duration of a popes reign would make a good instrumental variable. Now I just have to figure out for what.

[Leo]

This makes me wonder about papal age at assumption of office as well as papal age at cessation of office.

[Colin Percival]

I think you have to look at the ages at assumption of office to make sense of these numbers. In the early days of the church, there probably weren't many old Christians around to be considered for election -- active state persecution tends to thin the elderly population.

If you discard the data before 350 AD -- in other words, the period when papal demographics are likely to be influenced by religious persecution -- it looks to me like all you have left is a gradual increase which accelerates moving into the second half of the second millennium.

[Jacques René Giguère]

Colin: apart from a short one under Domitian, persecutions were small,brief local affairs. The whole thing wa s amplified to give legitimacy after 350 C.E.. after which, the issue lay dormant until the late 19th century Muscular Christianity meme. From which came the whole soft-core S&M litterature and movies such as Ben-Hur or The Robe. As well as the whole idiotic belief in Pollice Verso (thumb down) ( by classical times, gladiator combat has long ceased to be a human sacrifice and had become a profitable business where nobody was dumb enough to spoil the revenge match by killing your business assets)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollice_Verso

Livio: pedantry point: the first year is year 1. (Correction: uber-pedantry point...)

[Determinant]

Jacques, there was a difference between professional Gladiators, who were "stars" and "noxii", the condemned who were intended only to be "cannon fodder". The noxii were those seen as obnoxious to the state and sent to die by animal baiting or die as fodder for a professional gladiator. Condemnation of Christians as Noxii is well attested in the contemporary (pagan, BTW) historical literature.

The earliest reliable report of Christian persecution was 66-68AD under Nero. Domitian followed suit in 90 - 96AD.

Decius, Valerian and Diocletian all held Empire-wide persecutions and these were the most severe. These spanned 250 - 290 AD. Constantine became the Emperor in 305AD and issued the Edict of Milan in 313AD. He also convoked the Great Council of Nicaea in 325AD which produced the Creed. Theododius made Christianity the State Religion in 410AD.

[Livio Di Matteo]

Thanks for keeping me in line Jacques-absolutely right.

[Bob Smith]

Well, religious persecution of popes would have declined after the conversion of Constantine. Political persecution, however... being Pope remained a dangerous job well into the next millenium. By way of example, the saeculum obscurum of the early 10th century, and the latter conflict between the Holy Roman Emperor and the Pope(s) in the late 10th century, meant that the church worked through 21 popes in that century (and more than a handful of anti-Popes), a number of whom are known, or suspected, to have been murdered. Powerful men often have powerful enemies.

And the link between papal span and life expectancy is also problematic. There have been a handful of papal resignations (of which the Pope Benedict XVI is only the latest), a number of "official" popes were deposed, especially around the 10th and 11th centuries (as an aside Tom Holland's "Millenium" about the coming of the first Millenium in Europe and the religious and social upheaval around it makes for fascinating reading). Benedict IX served as pope on three distinct occasions and was ultimately excommunicated (having been apointed very young, by some account as a boy, he appeared to have lived a decidedly degenerate life as pope).

[Min]

BTW, the first year was 24, according to my calculations. :)

As for age, wasn't there a time that the Cardinals preferred to elect Popes who were getting on in years, to minimize the risk of suffering for years under a Pope they did not like? Also, weren't family politics served by short reigns? Many Cardinals came from prominent families, and a long reign would favor the Pope's relatives too much. And wasn't there one Cardinal who disguised himself as an old man in order to get elected Pope, and when he was elected, threw off his disguise? ;)

[Min]

Also, because of the interaction between the length of reign and the date, shouldn't the dimension at the bottom of Figure 1 be the number of the Pope?

[Livio Di Matteo]

Hi Min:
When I do the LOWESS smooth on reign versus number of the pope, I still get the u-shaped and it reaches a min near or about pope number 125 which is Stephen VII who reigns 929-931.

[Min]

Hi, Livio:

That fits in with what Bob Smith said about papal politics in the 10th century. :)

[Jacques René Giguère]

On persecutions
http://chronicle.com/article/The-Myths-Behind-the-Age-of/137423/

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