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Quebec and Manitoba?? I get the former, but the latter? On the other hand, I do remember driving past those mustard fields once....

Aerospace, my dear Shangwen, aerospace. Messier-Dowty and a few of its related companies and plants are now owned by the French aerospace conglomerate Safran. Winnipeg has Bristol Aeropace and Boeing. Montreal has Pratt & Whitney Canada, which is not just a Canadian subsidiary of Pratt & Whitney, jet engine maker of long standing, it is the division which focuses on small engines such as those for small turboprops and business jets.

I was once a part of that chain so I saw it all first hand. Messier-Dowty does landing gear and Safran generally does avionics, landing gear and other controls.

How do we do on employment when you strip out population growth? (Or do those figures control for population growth). It's been a while, but my recollection is that Canada's population has been growing at a slow, but steady, pace (largely due to immigration), while much of Europe's population has been flat, if not declining.

There's no doubt that Greece, Spain and Ireland have done particularly badly in creating jobs over the past 5 years. On the other hand, if they're facing mass emigration, those numbers (apart from being a stimulus for such migration) might overstate the impact of that lousy job creation (and vice-versa for Canada). I've read a number of stories recently about a new Irish exodus to the Uk, North America and Australia/New Zealand (See, for example, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/sep/30/ireland-recession-emigration-jobless-jobs). I also recently heard a story about Greeks migrating to Turkey for work (which, given the histories of those two countries is (a) a telling statement about the state of the Greek economy, and (b) not likely to be particularly attractive to many Greeks).

Migration might also explain Ireland's performance particularly terrible perforance. By virtue of being members of the anglosphere, Irish workers may have more opportunities for employment abroad than, say, Finns, Greeks or Spaniards (yes, yes, I know skilled workers the world over speak English - but you never see a Greek or Finn tending bar in Whistler). The existence of a better outside option would be expected to drive down job growth on both the labour demand side (though higher wages than in the absence of such an option) and a lower labour supply.

Here I was thinking of maple syrup and mustard powder, but apparently we also build machines in this country.

Bob, in the last year I have interviewed a number of new doctors and allied health specialists. The increase in Irish recruits is astonishing, particularly when you consider that they still have lots of work back home. Most are nervous about their families' prospects rather than their own. Perhaps economic immigration in bad times is also accelerated family reunification immigration.

Hardy har har....

"comprehensive Free Trade agreement"

Actually, I thought one of the >a href="http://www.canada.com/health/trade+deal+could+send+drug+prices+soaring+provinces+warn+Harper/6561820/story.html">centrepieces of the agreement was big new protectionist measures designed to raise prices by providing greater monopoly powers to large corporations. But maybe that goes by the name of 'free trade' these days, I don't know, perhaps I should ask an economist.

Sorry for the broken html, better link

Free trade with the EU, post Euro collapse (possible or likely), coupled with the recent austerity budgets by Federal and Provincial governments in Canada, might need a rethink on behalf of the Canadian worker who will be competing with countries having severely depreciated currencies compared to the CAD.

If our trade balance shifts towards deficit because of the agreement and an expensive CAD(which is very possible given the Euro issues), we will need a strategy to make sure the average Canadian, who may lose a job in labor, can still benefit.

And lets slow down on giving emigration the credit for Irish, Greek and Spanish employment growth, the cause and effect seem a little backwards....

If our trade balance shifts towards deficit because of the agreement and an expensive CAD(which is very possible given the Euro issues), we will need a strategy to make sure the average Canadian, who may lose a job in labor, can still benefit.

Such a strategy would almost certainly not be forthcoming as it would defeat the purpose of the exercise.


The argument isn't that emigration is causing the poor job creation performance, rather it's the ABILITY to migrate that might account for it. Put it this way, there are two possible mechanism through which a downward shift in the labour demand curve (i.e., a shock) can impact the labour market. There can be a wage response and a quantity response. If the response is wholly a wage response, than the number of jobs might not be severely effected (i.e., employers hire the same people they did before, just at lower wages). On the other hand, if wages are rigid, the shock would play out through a decrease in the number of jobs.

If the Irish can readily find work abroad (or if the cost of doing so is modest), than you might think that the Irish wage rate would be linked (to some degree or another) to the wage rate in other English speaking countries - since Irish workers can always work abroad in other English speaking countries. SO you might expect a labour demand shock in Ireland to play out through a decline in the number of jobs (I'd be curious what has happened to Irish wages - I suspect they haven't fallen as much as Greek wages). On the other hand, if you're a Greek, and it's difficult to find jobs abroad (if for no other reason that there aren't any other Greek speaking countries), then you kind of have to take whatever work is offered in Greece - so the labour shock would play out as a decreaes in wages, coupled with a less severe impact on the number of jobs.

Certainly, it's odd that Greece's jobs performance, while terrible, is so much better than Ireland's (and Spains?). This might provide an explanation.

Let me sum up what I think you're saying. A job opening in Ireland is not being filled because an Irishman is emigrating to take a higher paying job in the UK; this "accounts for", rather than is the cause of, poor Irish job creation numbers. Workers are just being picky in Ireland.

I think that you could just look at the unemployment rate. According to your logic Irish unemployment (#unemployed/pop in labour force) should be decreasing because the number of unemployed workers should be decreasing (moving elsewhere). That's not the case though, Ireland has had a steady 14.7% unemployment rate +/- .1 since last summer.

The other option, probably even a better one, is to look at the employment to population ratio. By your logic, it should be increasing because the population of unemployed workers is decreasing (through emigration). This is not the case either.

I think its better just to accept that Jobs are not being created because the economy is depressed, and then exacerbated by austerity measures. People are leaving because they have no choice, not because they have one.

and Mandos,
What is the purpose of the exercise?

What is the purpose of the exercise?

To force workers into competition with one another so that it is easier to cut their wages. Efforts to set a floor under their wages defeat this underlying, ongoing project.

Rick, do we think that Ireland's economy is twice as bad as Greece's? The question is, why has Irish job growth been twice as bad as Greece's?

I'm not sure either the unemployment rate or the employment rate proves or disprove the theory. The real test is what has happened to the greek and irish wage rates. If my hypothesis is right Greek wages will have fallen farther and harder than Irish wages.

The OECD had a report earlier this year which reported that since the crisis real wages had fallen in Greece by 25% (which would explain the political unrest there) while, in Ireland, they had INCREASED. That puts Ireland's job performance in another light.

MB has generic drug manufacturers that probably can't sell to USA. Also largest French speaking population west of Ottawa so books and newspapers and cultural stuff trade...food probably.

You could probably get a better income safety net by developing a federal skills database of jobs open, like are listed in Job Bank or on Kijiji. Then you can assess the skills and CVs of welfare and EI (what a parasitic programme, just transfer to hazard pay and welfare) recipients. You can find job matches and force some job applications. If employers don't take you you get paid for looking. When I was on pogey in the past they ask you to submit like 40 applications a day or something in person, without providing a bus pass. And could game the system by not returning calls of employers who want you. The longer on pogey, the more would be clawed back in a Trust account dedicated to your moving to where your closest job match is, with some recognition of housing availability and maybe cost-of-living. For the EU, young people should be moving to Germany, no? Even for AB, I like young people moving to be petro parasites. Even if they are shredding the industrial base of future parched S.Europe, and making Africa and Asia of 2060, failed states instead of cancer and heart disease researchers, young people graduating in recessions are hit hard measured by lifetime earnings; good to have $ in 20's.
The welfare perverts in Hfx ruined the city for me. Edm doesn't have the greatest job structure. I got screwed over by an agency who wouldn't tell me the employer I'd agreed to work at for a few months had their equipment damaged by bad temp order pickers...still I had 2 days of work a week at least.
Send the perverts to Prairies eventually.
A very big problem in economics is by making rich traders and bankers in charge of interest rates, you can't afford things like green jobs stimulii or future anti-pandemic stimulii when you most need it because interest rates rise and it is usually these same actors that ran up your debt in the first place.
Am reading a Chretein autobiography. The girl with the stripe hair on Dragon's Den said "a conservative biz culture is why our banks didn't ABCP". No, it was lower-middle class boy Chretein telling them where to go. Paying for migration and a finance windfall tax (or F. Transaction tax) are obvious solutions.

Greece's public sector was much larger than Ireland's, I bet the wage differential is due to the fact that rather than firing every public sector worker in Greece, the government just cut their salaries. And, Greece has a higher unemployment rate (50% higher) than Ireland, so I'm not sure where this "its twice as bad in Ireland" comes from? What are you using as a metric?


The "twice as bad" comes from the employment growth figures that Livio posted in the original post. Between 2007 and 2011, employment fell by ~8% in Greece compared to ~15% in Ireland (see Figure 3). Twice as bad.

This seems to me a very strange comparison. Why use growth of absolute number of employed people? This is obviously biased towards countries with high population growth and different starting conditions. Take Spain for instance: between 1999 and 2009 the number of foreign born population rose from about 1,250,000 to over 6,400,000 - from the total population of approximately 50 million people. There is no need to say that bulk of this number consist of working age adults. Also Spain experienced huge swings in unemployment, from 16% in 1999 through record low 8,1% in 2006 to almost 25% now. So the only reason why your numbers show Spain in positive light is by specifically selecting 2000 as a starting year. In 2000, Spain was well into growth already lowering unemployment by 8% from record high 24% in 1994. Also, introducing Euro in 1999 had a huge impact on capital flows in between Eurozone countries. However since as you know EU consists of countries with large difference in populations, it may be so that a very little change in employment for large country may cause huge changes for smaller countries.

But maybe I am missing something. Is there any particular reason why you decided to follow this metric for this comparison? Does it reveal something unique about Canada or Eurozone countries with respect to international trade? I mean, take your last paragraph and make from it a blogpost on its own. Does it sound less true without those numbers you presented?

I think StalYCp meant to post in Frances Drug thread...

Bob, it's spam, but only Livio or Stephen can delete it on this post, Frances

I figured as much, but it was topical spam for your post.

Bob, yup, I had the same thought.

Are robot-spammers evolving or are they the result of intelligent design?

Can't they be both?

In any event, in this case, the design wasn't that intelligent, since the spam bot didn't put the drug spam in Frances' post (though watch that thread fill-up with job offers from New Zealand aimed at the Irish).

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