Ranking Employment Performance

It has been the conventional wisdom in Canada that we have weathered the Great Recession and the financial crisis much better than the rest of the world.  Ever wonder why when government comparisons are made about how Canada fared during the Great Recession, the comparison made is inevitably with the G-7 countries? 

One indicator worth examining to try and answer this question is the growth of employment over the course of the Great Recession.  I obtained OECD figures on total civilian employment over the period 2007 to 2010 for 30 countries and calculated the percentage change in employment over this period and then ranked them from highest to lowest.

The average change in total civilian employment over this period was – 0.31 percent and the change in employment ranged from a high of 9 percent (for Turkey) to a low of -12 percent (for Ireland).  Interestingly enough, despite the Great Recession, many countries saw an employment increase during this period.  Of these 30 countries, 15 of them saw a decline in employment over the 2007-2010 period while 15 saw an increase – Canada included.  The average employment increase of those countries with positive growth was 3 percent while the average decline in the negative growth countries was  -3.6 percent.  The top five performers were Turkey, Australia, Luxembourg, Poland and Mexico while the bottom five countries were Ireland, Spain, Iceland, the United States and Portugal.   Where was Canada?  Well, Canada came in at 11^th spot at 1.4 percent employment growth – just behind the Netherlands and ahead of Germany. 

In terms of employment growth, Canada has done best during the current recession if you compare it to the countries that experienced an employment decline.  The G-7 was particularly hard hit so if you compare Canada to the G-7 – well, our performance has been stellar as Canada is one of two G-7 countries that saw employment growth during this period.  If you compare Canada only to the countries on this OECD list that saw employment growth, then Canada is in the bottom third of those countries having been surpassed by Australia, Norway, Austria, Korea and the Netherlands as well as Turkey and Mexico.  I suppose we have done well all things considered but many other countries have done even better.  Comparison groups are important.  In economic policy as in fine dining, presentation is everything.

 

 

Comments

[Andrew F]

The problem with OECD is that is includes some not-quite-developed countries like Turkey and Poland. Not sure it is a valid comparison, as these economies are still catching up.

[Frances Woolley]

I wonder how the employment growth rate compares with the growth rate of the labour force? Given the elimination of a standard retirement age plus immigration, I'd suspect that Canada's labour force grew by more than employment did over that period.

[Determinant]

I always wondered about that too Frances.

Also the G-7 have the biggest financial industries and this was a financial crisis.

[CBBB]

Based on my experiences there's not exactly a plethora of jobs out there in Canada, at least not quality ones. In fact despite the technically poorer labour market performance my job applications tend to go much further with American companies then Canadian ones. I think relative to immigration and considering what kind of jobs were created in Canada the Canadian employment growth looks even less spectacular.

[Too Much Fed]

"Ranking Employment Performance"

What about ranking retirement performance?

[Determinant]

The lack of opportunities coupled with an appalling long time frame from ad to hire (6 months if you're lucky) makes a mockery of the EI system's duration cap.

The HR foot-dragging has to say something about companies true expectations.

[hosertohoosier]

Determinant: "Also the G-7 have the biggest financial industries and this was a financial crisis."

Yeah, but finance wasn't the hardest-hit sector thanks to interventions like TARP. If you look at GDP by industry in the US, finance is doing above average. As of 2010 they were up about 7% from Q4 2007, versus nearly 0 for the economy as a whole. It is manufacturing and construction that have borne the brunt of the crisis, falling 15-20%.

Also, the G-7 varies depending upon what kind of finance you are talking about. For instance, Germany doesn't have a big securities sector, compared to the US or UK. It has a bank-led financial system.

[Determinant]

I meant it was a crisis generated in and by and with finance as the primary culprit.

Those who caused the crisis and those who suffered from it are of course different things.

I do know Germany has a different model where banks take ownership stakes more readily, but the Euro Crisis shows even Germany is vulnerable.

The current Euro Crisis is just the latest iteration in the game of "Pass the Misery" we've been collectively playing since 2008.

[Darryl Youzefowich]

I live in Turkey, and you can look at the employment/unemployment numbers there with a critical eye.

The reason? Inaccurate statical data for rural areas in Turkey.

For political reasons, the true unemployment rate (at last look) hardly was being calculated. Not sure they are even counting rural unemployment, and by the amount of migration to cities, and the amount of people in village cafes (female employment is nothing to male employment as well), tell me that things are not so accurate.

And externally based investment is huge. It remains to be seen how sustainable things are at the moment - rapid inflation remains a concern.