Forecasting the Future

I've always been a fan of science fiction and the other day came across an old anthology of Canadian science fiction on my downstairs shelf that contains a copy of a pamphlet written in 1883 forecasting what Canada was supposed to be like in 1983.  The actual author is apparently unknown but wrote the pamphlet "The Dominion in 1983" under the name of "Ralph Centennius". 

The article is quite remarkable first in its sense of grand economic and social vision for what Canada might become but also in terms of the accuracy of some of the predictions - particularly in the way of scientific technology.  Of course, some of the language is politically incorrect relative to today's standards and some of the projections - especially population - are also considerably way off.  Something akin to the First World War is predicted but it commences with a reign of terror in 1886 that topples European dynansties "like chaff in a gale" and the last great European war occurs in 1932.

And the country was apparently on the verge of invasion by the United States in 1887 but a series of accidents afflicted the Americans sowing confusion into their ranks and sparing the Dominion which emerged more united and stronger than ever.  Among other things afflicting the Americans: "The money market was showing signs of considerable derangement" - some things seem to be eternal constants in history.  As well, "Fearful storms and floods were chronicled from all parts..." and the invading army apparently was foundered in a hurricane. 

As for other forecasts, regarding population:

"Let us try to contrast the Dominion of to-day with the Dominion of 1983.  To begin with population. Our population in the last census in 1981, was just over 93,000,000.  A hundred years ago a scant 5,000,000 represented this great Canadian nation, which has since so mightily increased and proved itself such a beneficient factor in human affairs."

The forecasts are a bit more on the mark when the population of individual cities is forecast.  Toronto and Montreal are each forecast to have 2 million inhabitants by 1983 but then so is Winnipeg.  Ottawa is forecast to range between 500,000 and 1 million (not a bad forecast) but then so is Port Arthur - now Thunder Bay.  Churchill Manitoba is forecast to be a pleasant seaside resort of 200,000 people - perhaps also a forecast of climate change?

Then there is the forecast for the federation's dimensions itself:

"Seven provinces and some sparsely populated and only partially explored territories formed all that the world knew then as Canada.  Today, have we not fifteen provinces for the most part thickly peopled, and long since fully explored to the shores of the Arctic Ocean?"

Of course, while wildly off, they do convey a sense of immense optimism about the future especially given that they were written at a time when the transcontinential railroad had yet to be completed and the country itself was gripped by population outmigration and a slow economy. 

The transportation technology forecast is particularly interesting as it is seen as vital in linking the vast expanse of the country through rapid travel.  Not airplanes however but cylindrical rocket cars with passengers seated in a luxurious chamber at the center of the cylinder.  As Ralph writes:

"From Toronto to Winnipeg in thirty minutes! From Winnipeg to the Pacific in forty minutes! Such is the usual pace in 1983."

Ah, were it actually so today.  All in all, this article is alot of fun to read.The sense of optimism about the future is perhaps old-fashioned but refreshing given that such an article today about the future would be much more dystopian and dismal in its outlook.  Then there is the following patriotic outburst:

"Enough has been said to make it plain to the slowest intellect among us, what is gained by having been born in the twentieth century instead of in the nineteenth, and by being born a Canadian, instead of to any other land"

Followed eventually by the closing line:

"No man can despair who ponders on the position of the Dominion in 1983."

All in all, a fun piece of writing.  My copy of the pamphlet was in Other Canadas, edited by John Robert Colombo, McGraw-Hill, 1979.

Comments

[scepticus]

Not all recent visions of the future are dystopian. Are you familiar with Pierre Teilhard de Chardin?

Not a question for a serious economist of course, but maybe one for a science fiction fan.

[Livio Di Matteo]

Am not familiar with de Chardin. Can you suggest a book?

[scepticus]

You can download his book 'Phenomenon of Man' here:

The blurb:

"The Phenomenon of Man (Le Phénomène Humain, 1955) is a non-fiction book written by French philosopher, paleontologist and Jesuit priest Pierre Teilhard de Chardin. In this work, Teilhard describes evolution as a process that leads to increasing complexity, culminating in the unification of consciousness.

The book was finished in the 1930s, but was published posthumously in 1955. The Roman Catholic Church considered that Teilhard’s writings contradicted orthodoxy and prohibited their publication.

With the development of a complex Internet-based global society, some have argued that The Phenomenon of Man contains many insights that have proven prescient.[1]"

Of course, there is also a wikipedia page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Teilhard_de_Chardin

[Jim Sentance]

On the prediction of fifteen provinces, we should keep in mind that at the time Ontario and Quebec were only about half their current size. If the northern bits had been added as additional provinces instead of tacked on (as they were in the 1920's), and if the current territories were provinces, we'd be up to 15.

[Livio Di Matteo]

Thank you for the reference Septicus. Will add to my summer reading list.

[hosertohoosier]

I'm not sure those were such bad predictions for Canada, given the circumstances of the era. The late 19th century saw a significant transfer of wealth of population from Europe to the Americas, particularly the US. Once the US ran out of free land, it might not be that unreasonable to imagine those flows going toward Canada or Argentina (which, prior to the Baring crisis, was considered by some to be "the next US").

The problem, and the lesson of most predictions of the future, is that history is not linear - trends tend to be self-defeating. In the 50's they imagined people of the future driving flying cars, but using giant computers, but instead the Fordist-Keynesian paradigm hit some bottlenecks in the 70s (ie. limited oil, and stagflation). The trouble with glorious Canada predictions is that most of Canada's land mass is barely habitable, and that the wellsprings of people and capital from abroad turned off in the interwar period and beyond.