Worthwhile Canadian Initiative: NHL: Would You Rather Have the 24th Overall Pick or the 35th and 48th?

Similar to yesterday's question, but this one involving a trade where the Red Wings sent the 24th pick overall to the Senators in exchange for the 35th and 48th pick. The Senators would seem to do better with this trade than the Leafs, as the pick they receive is 2 picks lower (24 vs. 22) but the ones they give up are 5 picks and 9 picks lower respectively.

Same subjective methodology as yesterday:

1980: Normand Rochefort (D - 24th) for Mike Allison (F - 35th) and Shawn Babcock (RW - 48th)

Babcock never played in the NHL, while Mike Allison scored 102 goals in 499 games. Normand Rochefort played in 598 games and played for Canada in the 1987 Canada Cup. I'll give the edge to Rochefort. Outcome: Team 1 Win.

1981: Gary Yaremchuk (C) for Luc Dufour (C) and Uli Hiemer (D).

Diehard Leaf fans will remember Yaremchuk, who played 34 games in the NHL. Dufour and Hiemer each played over 100 (Dufour 167, Hiemer 143). Outcome: Team 2 Win.

1982: Gary Leeman (LW) for Mark Paterson (D) and Steve Seguin (RW).

Paterson and Seguin both had cups of coffee in the NHL (Paterson 29 games, Seguin 5). Leeman scored 199 goals in the NHL. Had this trade happened in real life, Leeman would have got to be on the happy side of an absolute steal. Outcome: Team 1 Steal.

1983: Shawn Evans (D) for Todd Francis (RW) and Allan Bester (G).

So far we've been pretty heavy on former Leafs. Bester played in 219 games, whereas Evans played in 9 and Francis none. I'm not enough of an Allan Bester fan to call this a steal, but it's close. Outcome: Team 2 Win.

1984: Brian Wilks (C) for Raimo Helminen (C) and John English (D).

Team 2 wins this in terms of games played, with 117 for Helminen and 3 for English versus 48 for Wilks. Helminen scored only 13 goals in those 117 games, so I'll call this one a draw. Outcome: Draw.

1985: Sean Burke (G) for Benoit Hogue (LW) and Darryl Gilmour (G).

This is this trade's version of Foote vs. Brisbeois. Hogue was an excellent player scoring 222 goals and adding 321 assists in 863 games. Sean Burke played in 820 games and won 324 (19th all time) and lost 341 (6th all time). As well, Gilmour never made the NHL. I'm tempted to call this a steal, but Hogue was an excellent player, so I'll label it a Team 1 win. If you want to call it a steal, I won't object. Outcome: Team 1 Win.

1986: Todd Copeland (D) for Mark Kurzwaski (D) and Sean Boland (D).

None of these guys ever made the NHL. Outcome: Draw.

1987: Rob Murphy (C) for Scott McCrady (D) and Kevin Kaminski (C).

McCrady never made the NHL, whereas Murphy and Kaminski had near-identical careers, with Murphy recording 21 points in 125 games, and Kaminski recording 13 points in 139 games. Well, not exactly identical - Murphy had 152 penalty minutes to Kaminski's 528. Outcome: Draw.

1988: Stephane Fiset (G) for Pat Murray (LW) and Peter Ing (G).

Another Leaf! Pat Murray only played in 25 games in the NHL, so this is essentially a goalie swap. Ing played in 74 games while Fiset played in 390. Outcome: Team 1 Win.

1989: Kent Manderville (C) for Byron Dafoe (G) and Bob Kellogg (D).

Kellogg never played in the NHL, making this essentially a Manderville for Dafoe swap. Manderville played roughly 50% more games than Dafoe (646 vs. 415), however Manderville was never much more than a 3rd/4th line guy, scoring 37 goals in those 646 games. Byron Dafoe had 3 seasons where he won over 30 games. I'll give this one to Dafoe, but I wouldn't be surprised if I received some arguments. Outcome: Team 2 Win.

1990: David Harlock (D) for Mike Muller (D) and Dan Plante (RW).

Roughly even. Harlock played in 212 games in the NHL, whereas Plante played in 159 and Muller not at all. Outcome: Draw.

1991: Rene Corbet (LW) for Jason Dawe (RW) and Jamie McLennan (G).

Three fine players, all who played over 250 games in their NHL careers. Corbet vs. Dawe is fairly even, with Corbet recording 132 points in 362 NHL games and Dawe 176 in 366 games. Add in Jamie McLennan's 254 games, and it's a clear Team 2 victory. Outcome: Team 2 Win.

1992: Peter Ferraro (RW) for Jozef Cierny (LW) and Mattias Norstrom (D).

I think I still have some Peter Ferraro rookie cards somewhere. Ferraro played in 92 games, 91 more than Cierny. Mattias Norstrom played in 903 regular season games and 2 All-Star games. Even more lop-sided than the Leeman trade. Outcome: Team 2 Steal.

1993: Eric Lecompte (LW) for Jamie Langenbrunner (RW) and Jon Coleman (D).

Another absolute theft, with Lecompte and Coleman never making the NHL. Langenbrunner has played in over 1000 NHL games (1035), with 70 of those coming last season! A GM who made two trades that turned out this badly in a row would have trouble keeping a job or obtaining another one. Outcome: Team 2 Steal.

1994: Chris Wells (C) for Josef Marha (C) and Sean Haggerty (LW).

A wash, with Wells and Marha playing in roughly the same number of games (195 for Wells, 159 for Marha) with Haggerty adding only 14. Outcome: Draw.

1995: Alexei Morozov (RW) for Sergei Fedotov (D) and Shane Kenny (D).

That's Fedotov, not Federov. Neither defenseman played in the NHL, whereas Morozov recorded 219 points in 451 games. Borderline steal, depending on how much you like Morozov. Outcome: Team 1 Steal.

1996: Daniel Briere (C) for Matt Cullen (C) and Daniel Goneau (LW).

This is a really difficult one to evaluate, as both teams do very well. Goneau played in 53 games, scoring 12 goals and 3 assists in his career. Although Briere and Cullen play the same position, they are very different players, with Cullen being more defensive minded and Briere being more of a goal scorer. Cullen has been far more durable (958 games vs. 743) and is not that far behind in points (500 vs. 594), I'll give the edge to Briere as he has played in 2 All-Star games to Cullen's zero. This is one you could argue about for awhile. Outcome: Team 1 Win.

1997: J.F. Damphousse (G) for J.F. Fortin (D) and Henrik Tallinder (D).

Both J.F.s had short NHL careers, with Damphousse appearing in 6 games to Fortin's 71. Henrik Tallinder has played in 550 to date, including a full 82 last season for the Devils. Outcome: Team 2 Steal.

1998: Christian Backman (D) for Petr Svoboda (D) and Jonathan Girard (D)

The team 2 defensemen played in a combined 168 games (150 for Girard and 18 for Svoboda) compared to 302 for Backman. I'm torn whether or not to consider this one a team 1 win or a draw. I'll settle on the latter. Outcome: Draw.

1999: Luca Cereda (C) for Milan Bartovic (RW/LW) and Simon Lajeunesse (G)

Cereda is another name in Leaf lore. Although Cereda never played in the NHL and the other 2 players did, both Bartovic and Lajeunesse had sufficiently short careers (40 games for Bartovic, 1 game for Lajeunesse) that I'll call this a draw. Outcome: Draw.

2000: Brad Boyes (C) for Brad Winchester (LW) and Gerard Dicaire (D).

Dicaire never made the NHL, making this essentially a Boyes for Winchester swap. Both Boyes and Winchester are still in the league, with Winchester scoring 10 goals last season and Boyes recording 16. Given that Winchester has played in 170 fewer games (323 vs. 493), I will give this one to Boyes. Outcome: Team 1 Win.

2001: Lukas Krajicek (D) for Mark Popovic (D) and Tuomas Pihlman (LW).

Krajicek has played in 328 NHL games so far, compared to 81 for Popovic and 15 for Pihlman. Outcome: Team 1 Win.

2002: Alexander Steen (C) for Ondrej Nemec (D) and Alexei Shkotov (C).

Another Leaf! Steen has scored 100 goals in 454 NHL games, whereas Nemec and Shkotov never played in the NHL. Outcome: Team 1 Steal.

2003: Mike Richards (C) for Konstantin Glazachev (LW) and Dmitri Chernykh (LW).

Double ouch! Richards has been one of the best players of the decade (349 points in 453 games), whereas the other 2 players again did not play in the NHL. Outcome: Team 1 Steal.

2004: Kris Chucko (RW) for Logan Stephenson (D) and Dane Byers (LW).

These 3 playuers have a combined 8 games of NHL experience. Outcome: Draw.

Overall Outcome: Those extra few picks down seem to make a big difference, with Team 1 winning 10 (4 steals) and Team 2 winning 7 (3 steals). In terms of NHL experience:

100 games played: Team 1 - 16, Team 2 - 18

200 games played: Team 1 - 14, Team 2 - 11

300 games played: Team 1 - 13, Team 2 - 9

400 games played: Team 1 - 9, Team 2 - 7

Team 1 is looking pretty good here. Their 400+ club includes:

Normand Rochefort (D)
Sean Burke (G)
Gary Leeman (LW)
Kent Manderville (C)
Alexei Morozov (RW)
Daniel Briere (C)
Brad Boyes (C)
Alexander Steen (C)
Mike Richards (C)

And Team 2's list:

Mike Allison (F)
Benoit Hogue (LW)
Byron Dafoe (G)
Mattias Norstrom (D)
Jamie Langenbrunner (RW)
Matt Cullen (C)
Henrik Tallinder (D)

I prefer Team 1's list in both quantity and quality. Given what we saw yesterday, I'm not sure what to conclude. I think sample size issues are making it difficult to come to a definitive conclusion.