Statistics Canada released their estimates for monthly GDP growth in February: a decline of 0.2%. This is a disappointing number, but when combined with the strong January number and the increase in hours worked in March, my toy backcaster that uses the first two months' GDP data and the employment numbers in the third month (most recent exercise here) to get a preliminary estimate for the most recent quarter produces an estimate of 3.8% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011. The interquartile range is [3.5 , 4.1], and the standard deviation is 0.5%.
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