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If we assume that the probability forecasts are independent, then we get a probability estimate of 50% that there will not be a negative real growth quarter among the four. But surely the forecasts are positively correlated, so the combined forecast of no negative real growth quarter lies between 50% and 83%. :)

The bond market sure seems to be signalling an extended period of stagnation which presumably significantly raises the odds of a double dip.

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