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I was surprised to see just how volatile CIT revenues are, though I expect I shouldn't be. Yep. That's gotta be the main story.

Eyeballing your top chart, it looks like the deficit peaked at around $42 billion, which is a good $10 billion better than we expected. I wonder whether the loans to the automakers and others are included there?

Pleasantly surprised? I know I am.

It is curious that in the background stock markets and commodity markets have corrected sharply in the last couple of days. Ostensively on fears of Greek fiscal contagion. The fear seems overblown to me. I see a constant trickle of positive news out there and what appear to be various forecasts revised upwards.

Maybe these markets just needed a pretext to calm down?

It seems to me that CIT revenues have emulated our TSX with at least a 6 months lag. The drop in revenues has been around 45% and for the index it has been around 50%. Now, the rally from the lows is in the range of 55-60% and that probably means an increase for CIT revenues of the same magnitude. That is, roughly, an additionnal 10 billions $ at least for the government.

Maybe the market is wrong...who knows!

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