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Yep. This persuaded me to look back over our 2009 forecasts:
And how they turned out:
You (and Andrew) came very close.

I can't think why my own forecast for unemployment was so overly optimistic (7.5%! for November 2009). I don't remember feeling that optimistic. Generally, I thought I felt more worried than you. most of the time.

But what about the Eurozone!? Doesn't that worry you now?

Yes - but I'm going to have to work through some orders of magnitude to put things in perspective.

I'd be more convinced if you'd seen the changes in the housing market coming...

Short yes, but can we really call it mild? Also, we would have been looking at a much more severe recession if not for some really heroic policy decisions by the Government and especially the BoC - but perhaps that is why you thought it the recession wouldn't be as bad as initially perceived?

I think we get transfixed on the US economy, unconsciously extrapolate from the US experience to the Canadian experience, or simply forget to explicitly make the distinction sometimes. Then economic fortunes varied from one region of the country to the other with commmodity-dependent regions faring much better.

The US recession started in December 2007 and probably ended in August 2009 or thereabouts. That's long.

Maybe there is something to be said for a coordinated response of pedal-to-the-metal monetary policy stimulus? In Canada's case, I'll bet the public gives Harper's fiscal stimulation more than a reasonable share of credit. Curiously enough, I believe fiscal policy did play some role in the recovery of the Canadian economy -- China's fiscal policy.

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