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My model (a quarterly projection model with an dynamic IS-LM structure) says 4.9 - 6 with a mean of 5.4

Dang. Always makes me nervous when other models give similar results...

Ummmm. Stupid question. Who cares about the accuracy of predicting history?

In other words, why should non economists care?

well, my model is often right, if that helps.

Ummmm. Stupid question. Who cares about the accuracy of predicting history?

In other words, why should non economists care?

Policy decisions are contingent on the current state of the economy. So it's of interest to know the current state of the economy.

Yep. Controlling monetary policy is like driving a car, trying to keep the speed constant, when you can only look in the rearview mirror, and the speedomoeter only tells you want speed you were doing last week. So anything that brings the speedo a little bit more up to date can help.

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