A buying opportunity for snowbirds?

Casey Mulligan notes that "US houses during the boom did not look so expensive from a European perspective", although he's not sure to what extent it matters. I suspect that it matters a lot to many Canadians. Here's a graph of the Case-Shiller Phoenix house price index in USD and in CAD, along with the Teranet C-6 index:

Graphs for Miami and Tampa look the same.

Since 2002, Canadian housing prices have almost doubled, and US sunbelt prices have fallen by 20%-40% in CAD terms. I wonder how many Canadians are selling their homes and buying US retirement properties these days.

Comments

[rp]

"I wonder how many Canadians are selling their homes and buying US retirement properties these days."

Hopefully all of them, assuming they need their home equity for retirement. Your graph doesn't show it, but in the biggest cities house prices have doubled in 6 years. It is never too early to book a windfall profit. Now I have been told repeatedly that this is not a bubble, etc, and 25 year olds borrowing 500k backed by the taxpayer is the new normal. But I would still take the money and run for the sun.

[Declan]

Given the upward trajectory in both markets and also in Canadian debt levels, I wonder how many Canadians are *keeping* their homes and buying US retirement properties..

[myron]

I know a couple of folks in Declan's situation there, owning in the lower mainland AND buying in Arizona. If ya like golf and sitting in an airconditioned monster home avoiding the unrelenting sunshine, well, there's deals for ya.

[Declan]

At my office, the joke is that you could simply put some of the homes in Phoenix on your credit card...

[The Balf]

Just a heads up, bargain-seekers. I am aware of several Calgarians who have recently bought in Phoenix and the value of their properties continues to go DOWN. Phoenix, at least, has not bottomed as of March 2010.

[Andrew F]

There were some news stories about consortia of Canadians buying property in the sun belt, basically making a swing trade in a market that had overreacted. Not sure how those speculators are making out.

[RSJ]

Phoenix is an unconstrained, low income city.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_fevQMK7kLEI/S6F06nZjBnI/AAAAAAAAAKE/blNKe2oPpHo/s1600-h/PHX_HPI_FMR.png

[valuethinker]

There's no point a retired Canadian choosing to live in America more than 6 months less 1 day.

The issue being, AFAIK, healthcare eligibility-- you are not eligible (for Ontario) healthcare without being resident in Canada for more than 6 months of the year. You are not eligible for US medicare and private insurance would be unaffordable in the 65+ bracket.

So second homes, yes, but you've got to maintain a residence in Canada.

Since your pension is in CDN, moving full time to the US also makes you very vulnerable to exchange rate moves. A common problem in Europe is UKians who moved to the Continent, with British pensions, and are now getting killed by the rise in the Euro.

My own preference would be New Mexico over Arizona. Same desert climate, but much less crowded. The existence of large government employers provides some cultural life, I believe. The mix of native, Anglo and Hispanic culture (Hispanics who moved to America, before it was America ie before the 1845 war) is also interesting. Nicer place, generally, I think (at least for now).