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"US data (as in the WSJ graph above) suggest that recessions are characterised not so much by an increase in the rate of job loses, but as a reduction in the rate of job creation. "

This in particular happens every time that a new price floor is put on wages. Unemployment rises, but mostly because people hold off on hiring. Anyway, we need better models of the unemployment aspect of recessions.

I might suggest we need better models on hiring trends and employment prospects. The challenge of looking into a rear view mirror to to keep focused on where you are headed.


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