There's been a certain amount of commentary on today's GDP release. An annualised growth rate of 0.4% for 2009Q3 is better than zero - and it's at the 80th percentile of the predictive density generated by my toy predictor - but it's not what you'd call a strong recovery.
Happily, there's better news about GDI. The rebound in commodity prices has generated in a recovery in our terms of trade, resulting in an increase of our buying power of 3.3% at annual rates.
(See this post for an explanation of the difference between GDP and GDI).
With any luck, this will be the last post filed under the 'current recession' category.
If there is a double dip, triggered by falling US demand, will that be a new recession?
Posted by: Andrew F | November 30, 2009 at 04:35 PM
I guess I'd call that bad luck...
Posted by: Stephen Gordon | November 30, 2009 at 04:45 PM
i thought gdi also took into account the income Canada gets from it's overseas investments?
Posted by: jeremy | November 30, 2009 at 07:56 PM
A commentor on your last post about GDI asked how this explanation could cause deflationary pressures. The GDI theory of the recession is compelling, but I'm still curious about this point.
Posted by: miko | December 01, 2009 at 12:51 PM