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You make a good point Stephen. But unemployment comparisons paint a rosy picture for Canada and suggests a mild recession. If you look at GDP instead, was not the drop in Canada's GDP this year was quite a bit worse with a quarterly drop on the order of -6% yoy. The view that Canada's recession is mild might be metric-sensitive.

Actually, I was thinking more about the timing of the turning point.

The major flaw in your post is that you're assuming we actually are out of the recession.

While we pat ourselves on the back, don't forget that the forecasts out of Bay Street as late as December 2008 were way too optimistic: http://shockminuscontrol.blogspot.com/2008/12/short-and-mild.html

Three-day weather forecasts are surprisingly accurate. Near-term, within-regime forecasts are relatively easy.

I want to hear about the Canadian macro-forecasters who got it right for H209 back in August or September of 2008.

I want to hear about the Canadian macro-forecasters who have cracked the 'Black Swan event' nut.

I dunno. When I look back on my posts from that time, we were all waiting for the recession to hit. So when it did, it wasn't really much of a surprise, even if the form and speed was.

I'd think that the black line in the top chart would suggest some caution in declaring victory.

I will admit that I underestimated the impact that cutting interest rates to 0 and leaving them there would have (was that a part of your prediction? Back in '08 I didn't foresee interest rates hitting the zero bound here in Canada, not so quickly anyway). It's a strange environment we're in, with economists declaring the recession both mild and over and the Bank of Canada openly contemplating 'quantitative easing'!

I think we can declare victory over the IMPENDING DOOM meme peddled by lazy pundits.

Doom is relative. But south of the border it still looks pretty awful, (not to mention politically nuts) and living next to a rumbling volcano can be pretty unsettling.

Many economists saw the recession coming; few saw the financial sector crisis that made this recession an unusual event. (Roubini is the only high-profile economist that comes to mind who got it right but hadn't been crying doom 'n gloom for the past decade or more.)

There was nothing in the yield curve tea leaves, to use our best forecasting model as an example, to suggest the magnitude of the crisis.

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