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1% would certainly be a shock - My small-scale model is telling me -3.5%, the Bank of Canada is forecasting -3.5% and consensus from the Banks (or rather the consenus from the Global Insight spreadsheets they all seem to use) is also close to -3%. These estimates are 4 standard deviations from your model, but then again, when are we in the forecasting business ever right?

sorry - meant to say 4 stdev from your model's mean estimate.

I think what's driving my number is that June saw an increase in hours worked, so the model forecasts an increase in GDP for that month.

Apparently I was wrong - the post has been edited to correct a glitch...

hey that looks better (in that it fits with my forecast).

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