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The commodity prices are also going to do a number on the provincial budgets of a number of provinces, particularly Newfoundland, Saskatchewan, and Alberta.

Is there a site anywhere that has oil priced in Canadian dollars, along with natural gas, whether it is traded here or just a converted price.

Since those numbers are what is required to predict government and corporate revenues, it might be more useful for certain situations.

In this context I think your "fuite en avant" translates into the very standard "race to the bottom".

I might suggest "between a rock and hard place".

Let's give into the pessimism. Canadians are not particularly innovative or productive. Privatizing (quickly) resource rents are the only way to go.

Increase subsidies to the resource sector. Bring back the royalty trusts, i.e., income trusts for oil and gas companies. Lower royalties, lower stumpage fees, subsidize even more excess capacity in the wood fibre business.

Increase year-in-year out seasonal employment insurance labour subsidies to resource-extraction businesses. Increase the generosity of fishing category employment insurance benefits for fishermen.

I say the Old Testament should be the guiding light for resource development.

Avoid Sovereign Wealth funds at all costs. For they are nothing but an evil communist plot.

I was conveying the same thing to a client a couple of weeks ago, regarding how well the CAD/US rate tracks oil prices. He suggested this shouldn't be the case since oil is transacted in US dollars and most oil and gas companies are US based - therefore higher oil prices shouldn't create demand for Canadian dollars vs US dollars.

I admit I didn't have a good answer for him. Any thought?

My answer would be that to the extent that producing oil in Canada requires paying workers, Canadian-based suppliers and Canadian taxes in Canadian dollars, expanding activity in Canada will increase the demand for Canadian dollars.

What, no dotted line on this graph?

fuite en avant* between the devil and the deep blue sea

If Canada's fortunes are to be tied to those of its major trading partner, and if you see that partner as increasingly becoming China-- doesn't this heighten the regional East-West tensions in Canada? What China wants from Canada largely come from BC, Alberta, and Saskatchewan. Ontario and Quebec are much less significant in a "rise of China" scenario than they were in a regime dominated by trade with the US

Flug nach vorn?

"Flight forward" is the translation I have read. I first saw this used to describe the behaviour of large armies which depended on extracting their supplies from the countryside through which they moved. Napoleonic I think.

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