Oil prices in currencies other than the USD revisited

Time up update my irregular series of graphs of oil price movements in currencies other than the USD:

The story of the first couple of months is pretty straightforward: oil prices fell in January and came back up in February, and there wasn't much in the way of significant exchange rate movements. By the end of February, we were pretty much where we were when the year started.

And then March hit, with important swings in both oil prices and in exchange rates. In the Euro zone, an appreciating currency attenuated much of the rise in oil prices, and oil was slightly cheaper on March 20 than it was on Jan 2. The even stronger appreciation of the yen means that oil prices in Japan are 7% lower than when the year began.

The CAD has been tracking the USD pretty closely over the past few months, but the recent drop in oil prices has been offset by a depreciating CAD. The net result is that CAD oil prices are still more than 5% higher than at the beginning of the year.

As long as forex markets peg the CAD to oil prices, the CAD value of oil exports should hold up.

Comments

[Noni Mausa]

I suppose I shouldn't have been, but I was startled by the disparity between US and Canadian gas prices, given their close tracking when it comes to oil prices.

In my central Canadian home we are now paying roughly $1.07 CDN (~$1.02 US) for a liter of gas -- that's roughly $3.57 US per US gallon. 200 miles south, USians are paying roughly $2.95 -- $2.30 US per gallon. http://www.minnesotagasprices.com/

A similar large difference has been in place for as long as I can remember -- I would hope the extra dollar is building roads up here, but I imagine it just splashes into that money pit, General Revenue.

Noni

[Anna Coulling]

As a full time currency trader based in the UK and working for myself, I thought I would add my thoughts to your post. I trade the USD/CAD pair a great deal and have studied the Canadian economy in detail, so I hope the following is useful. Six years after it hit an all time low in 2002 the Canadian dollar has since gained almost 40% against the US dollar and the question everyone is asking is whether this trend will continue, and if so for how much longer. On the economic front, the data presented by the Bank of Canada has continued to indicate a slowdown in growth particularly in the manufacturing sector. Canadian job prospects remain good, which would suggest that the economy is resilient at present to any slowdown. However, with the possibility of a full recession in the US, then further slowing of the Canadian economy is inevitable. In recent months the combination of favourable inflation figures and evidence of weaker growth will, I believe, encourage the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates to follow those in the US, but that these cuts will be small to avoid the possibility of increasing inflationary pressures in the economy. Overall, I believe that the Canadian dollar is unlikely to weaken sharply against the US dollar, but the current position of parity may be difficult to sustain in the longer term and a move back to around 1.10 or 1.15 would seem the most likely target. If resistance is penetrated at 1.15 then the Loonie could weaken further.

[Bob]

You can't buy Oil in any of the other currencies that you graph. So what is the point exactly?