Live blogging from the Quebec election

Here I am at ground zero of the Canadian political scene. Politics at the federal level invariably revolves around what's happening in Quebec - and what's happening in Quebec is a provincial election. And in this provincial election, what's happening in the Quebec City area may be determine who wins. And the key to the Quebec City region, the province, and the future of the country may rest in the hands of an anglophone economics professor with an ironically-titled blog.   

So it is my duty - and apparently my legal right - to tell you my version of what's going on. I'll update this post over the next few weeks.

March 2: Today's headline is a Léger poll with the Liberals at 35%, the PQ at 29% and the ADQ at 25%. According to this prediction model, these results would generate 50 Liberal seats, 50 PQ seats, and 25  for the ADQ.  This is the second poll to show the ADQ breathing down the neck of the PQ, so both of the other parties have now decided - somewhat belatedly - to pay attention to Mario Dumont and the ADQ. Up until now, the ADQ gains seem to have come largely from disaffected PQ voters (at least 5 ADQ candidates are former péquistes), which explains why André Boisclair has been working to secure the PQ base of pur et dur voters who are preoccupied with the independence issue. Until now, the Liberals have been content to watch this happen. But now that the ADQ has become the most important obstacle to another Liberal majority, Jean Charest is clearly worried, to the point of putting the ADQ's commitment to federalism in doubt. He must be desperate to be scraping this low in the barrel with more than three weeks to go: the ADQ has made it extremely clear that it has no intention of touching the question nationale.

Right now, the ADQ is poised to situate itself as a strong third party against a minority government. But if they've put both the Liberals and the PQ in the position of appealing to their respective hardest-of-hard-core bases, then it's quite possible that their opponents are worried that they could go even farther.

March 4: A non-Quebecer economist asked me today what the main economic issues were in the campaign. I couldn't think of any. Nor could I think of any political issue: no-one is talking about independence or constitutional change. It would appear that the really important issues are sociological.

For the past 30 years, the Liberals and the PQ have had their own solid base, and squabbled over a relatively small number of swing ridings. Even in their worst defeats, either party could count on a solid base of support upon which to build the next time around.

But the mold has developed cracks this time around. The PQ coalition of leftish and conservative nationalists is breaking apart: some leftists are breaking off to support Québec Solidaire, and the ADQ is picking off much of its rural support. And now that the separatist menace is only a ghost of its former self, federalists who'd like a choice are finally getting one.

One of the most important developments is the continuation of what we saw in last year's federal election. People in the regions are annoyed with the urban hipsters of Imperial Montreal (the very fact that non-Montrealers are routinely described as living in the regions goes a long way to explain this irritation), and as soon as they were offered a third choice aside from the usual bands of people drawn from the Montreal chattering classes, they took it seriously. The success of the ADQ and - to a lesser extent - that of QS and the Greens looks to signify a new re-alignment in Quebec politics.

The most important cleavages in this election aren't rich vs poor, sovereignist vs federalist or left vs right. They're all about the social groups to which people feel most attached. Though it pains me to say it, I'm forced to admit that sociologists are probably better positioned to offer insight into what's going on than are economists.

March 14: Leaders' debate last night. Like all responsible citizens who are interested in watching intelligent discussions of public affairs, I watched Rick Mercer instead.  Leaders' debates are cringe-inducing exercises whose only real purpose is to generate next-day media spin. So I'll talk about the spin.

There were two (!) snap polls, one showing a three-way tie, the other showing a slight win for Mario Dumont. Conclusion: throw out the snap polls.

Pundits' opinions were equally varied. My favourite came from Le Devoir's Michel David, on the local Radio-Canada radio show this morning. He said that there was little said that would change anyone's minds; everyone would see something to reinforce whatever opinions they had before the debate. In the next breath, and without apparent irony, he launched into an 'objective' explanation for why André Boisclair should be considered the winner. (He was followed by the Globe and Mail's Rhéal Séguin, who thought that Dumont had won.)

One of the newspapers declared the debate a draw, but as one columnist said, it's better to say that we're going into overtime.

March 15: There hasn't been a poll published since last weekend, but I expect we'll see at least one either tomorrow, or by Saturday at the latest. Since the debate, we've seen Jean Charest attacking the ADQ even harder than before, and André Boisclair is calling for straying supporters of sovereignty to come back to the PQ fold. The Liberals and the PQ hardly ever refer to each other; it's all about the ADQ and Dumont. From this, I infer that both the Liberals and the PQ have seen from their own internal polling that the ADQ threat is not receeding. My fearless prediction: the next poll(s) will again show the Liberals with a narrow lead, and with the ADQ right behind the PQ.

March 16: Léger has a poll out this morning with the Liberals at 33%, and the PQ and ADQ tied at 30%. Go me!

Update: Well, that was quick. Two columnists are now raising the possibility that the ADQ could actually win. Comparisons are being made to the Ontario NDP's surprise majority in 1990.

March 19: The weirdness hits new levels. Quebec's provincial political leaders are all scrambling to claim credit for the actions of a federal (!) government led by a  Conservative (!!) from Alberta (!!!), and it took approximately 0.173 seconds for the Bloc Québécois to decide to support today's federal budget. Even though neither his nor his party's name will appear on any ballot next Monday, Stephen Harper has already won this election.

March 26: Election day. The poll numbers haven't really moved much in the past few weeks, and there are so many close races involving all combinations of the three major parties that the only really unlikely outcome would be a majority government. Tonight's election results are going to be the most gripping TV of the season.

Comments

[Brian Ferguson]

"the key to the Quebec City region, the province, and the future of the country may rest in the hands of an anglophone economics professor"
Remember, with great power goes great responsibility.

[Christine]

Canada is an important medium-sized power, that punches above its weight in the world, isn't it? So you'll have to consider how you're affecting the entire world, too. Esp re GHGs and whatnot, I'd think. Remember, the Montreal Protocol on CFCs showed the way!