The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey: It's quiet. It's *too* quiet.

From the autumn survey (pdf):

• "The balance of opinion on future sales growth has fallen close to zero, indicating that sales are expected to increase at about the same pace as in the past 12 months. Many firms in Western Canada, including those in the services sector, are facing capacity constraints and therefore do not expect to exceed the high rates of growth experienced over the past 12 months."
• "Although the balance of opinion on investment in machinery and equipment is below the high levels of recent surveys, it remains well above average in Western Canada. Many firms, especially in Central and Eastern Canada, do not expect to invest as much in the coming 12 months because they have invested heavily over the past 12 months."
• "Hiring intentions rose across most regions. In the goods-producing sector, the balance of opinion on employment is particularly high relative to historical experience."
• "The percentage of firms reporting difficulties in meeting an unexpected increase in demand is largely unchanged from levels in the past several quarters. Capacity pressures are reported in many sectors but are concentrated in firms operating in Western Canada."
• "The proportion of firms reporting labour shortages that restrict their ability to meet demand has declined over the past several surveys and is now slightly below the historical average. Shortages continue to be most prevalent in the primary sector and in the West. More broadly, firms report taking various measures to adjust to tight labour markets; in particular, raising wages."
• "Once again, inflation expectations are essentially unchanged. Over three quarters of firms expect the rate of change in the consumer price index over the next two years to be within the Bank’s inflation-control target range of 1 to 3 per cent."

If we didn't have the possibility of a US slowdown hanging over our heads, the Bank would be well pleased with the sort of numbers in this survey: we're in the zone, and it looks as though we'll stay there for a while yet.

But I wonder if they wouldn't actually prefer to get a piece of bad news, just so they can stop wondering when the the other shoe - in the form of a reduction of exports to the US - will drop.

Comments

[Anna Keightley]

Hi Gordon: Visited your site only once before and will study it further.

Meantime you analyze Globalresearch.ca (GLOBAL ECONOMY ARTICLES) and do a precis of material on this site for general public translating it into lay terms.

What needs to be confirmed are facts, stats and projections presented there.

The site is no doubt a left gatekeeper from the halls of acadamia, so to speak, however, Chossy (nickname) is tenured economics professor at U.of Ottawa.

Will check back later since I estimate you're a credentialed, highly interested economist. I have Harvard Macro-economics course 101 and that was thirty years ago.

thanks for any and all consideration you give to this project as an invaluable service to Canadian citizenry.

[Anna Keightley]

Correction: That should be "could you see your way to analyzing in lay terms the Chossy GLOBAL ECONOMICS ARTICLES"

Were you aware of the fact that the ASSOC. of CANADIAN CEOs had initially proposed that the GST cut instituted by Conservative gov't be applied to Canadian social program?

As well, reports that median Canadian salary is outstripped by fact that CEOs earn at minimum 262 times that of average.

Also, percentage of foreign ownership buy-outs here in Canada. For instance, UAE group now owns Toronto's heritage site, The York Hotel.

It seems we need business sector publishing salary scales from bottom to top so to speak. At same time addressing increasing minimum/border wages.

Same for the real estate industry, banking sector particularly as they affect mortgages, etc.

Domestic economics should be number one priority on next election platform even as we address Islamic terrorism in Afghanistan and their ambitions to secure nuclear capability in pursuit of complete hegemony of Globe.

Thanks