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You are so smart and wonderful.


p.s. don't forget. Today is garbage eve.

Another great post!

The effect is sharp, but still possibly a disappointment, as you mentioned.

But couldn't it be the case that finding a job earlier has substantial benefits? In terms of the human or financial capital accumulation (vs. depletion) for example. Being on the job market may improves your employability and leads you to better jobs, while being out of it may leads you to worse job.

Of course, this requires that would-be workers do not anticipate this side effect of waiting, or at least, that it is not valued more than the financial reward of the program. In the first case, the program may be productive, although in the latter case the gain are more limited.

The human-capital-accumulation argument is an important one, and it's probably why they thought the SSP experiment was worth doing in the first place. The idea was that it might encourage people who might not otherwise have done so to look for a job, with the expectation (hope?) that once they had a job, they'd escape the welfare trap.

Unfortunately - at least as far as this experiment goes, and it's far from being the last word on the subject - the human capital effect seems to be disappointingly small.

I will have to revise my a prior (hope?).

I wonder if turnover might have something to do with the failure to accumulate human capital? I thought that spending an extra 4 year on a job would get you somewhere, (somehow). Possibly the turnover in employment status is high enough to break the link?

and don't forget the garbage...

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