« A shotgun wedding for the United States of the Euro? | Main | Good and bad currency wars »


Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

I think it's a bit disingenuous to attribute much of this to the party in power, or equate early 90s NDP or late 90s Conservatives to today's variants in capability or intent.

Leo: Disingenuous? Did you even read the post? How is it lacking in candor or calculating to state conclude: "I suppose political representation is ultimately no protection from exogenous economic shocks."

It's not just a question of exogenous shocks. Intuitively, we can expect to see correlation between economic growth and political party in power because the state of the economy has an impact on how people vote. Given this possible causation (good economic conditions lead to more right-wing government), any correlation between party and economic growth is meaningless without a significantly more detailed study.

I think you'd need to back out general economic climate for this to be at all interesting. Maybe compare employment growth between Ontario and surrounding US border states (ie, peers).

Well, I'm intrigued. Why would an comparison of employment of Ontario regions according to political party in power be more interesting if we compared employment growth between Ontario and U.S. Border states? All of Ontario is highly integrated with the U.S economy (even the North) so I'm not sure what the diferential effect of the border would be? Also, would we not then need to control for American political parties in power during the same period? Any thoughts?

I don't think there is a causal link between partisanship and growth - if you look at the US, or Canada federally, the parties of the right perform worse (in terms of jobs and GDP growth, and roughly the same in terms of inflation).

@Neil: "good economic conditions lead to more right-wing government"
If right wing parties are most likely to take power at the peak of a boom, wouldn't that lower their average performance? Democrats have tended to win at the trough of recessions, meaning that the recovery tends to happen during their terms (although the current crisis hasn't have much a recovery yet), eg.
Obama: recovery from 2008 crisis
Clinton: recovery from 1990/1 recession
Carter: recovery from oil shock/73-75 recession
LBJ: no recession
JFK: recovery from 60/61 recession
Truman: no recession
FDR: recovery from great depression

Contrast that to Republicans, among whom only Reagan governed through a recovery (from a recession that started before he came into office), without leading through the recession itself. In other words, Republicans are more likely to take power around the peak of the economic cycle.

Bush: recession of 2001 hit as he was taking office, so he gets to downturn and recovery
Bush sr: no recession
Reagan: 79/80 recession preceded his taking office
Nixon/Ford: mild recession in 69/70 started after Nixon took office
Ike: recession of 53 started as Nixon entered office

Livio, it might give you a sense of relative performance. Absolute performance is probably dominated by other factors. You would also expect some lag in the effect, if there is one.

I'm not sure how you could isolate the effect of any given party. I just think that both politicians and the general public tend to overstate the influence of politicians on economic performance, particularly in the short term.

Interesting observation, i.e., "overstating the influence of politicians on economic performance" - here, in the U.S. we seem to have overextended ourselves, paid little attention to debt (2 or is it 3 wars we're putting on the National credit card ) little attention has been paid to health care, education, maintenance of roads, bridges, you name it -- all on the Republican watch. The Republicans were voted out -- The Democrats were then expected to clean up the mess which was way too great for a quick turnaround especially with the Republicans attacking at every turn and so now we are faced with the Republicans screaming for cuts in healthcare, education, etc. That seems like political parties at work to me.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Search this site

  • Google

Blog powered by Typepad