Over here, I expressed confusion at Mark Carney's reported remarks to the effect that 'whatever good news existed was caused artificially by massive government and central bank stimulus':
It occurs to me that I hadn't actually made that point here before. So here is a graph of the 12-month moving sums (the monthly data are very volatile and have significant seasonal elements) of federal government expenditures and revenues up until March 2009.
Ottawa has moved into deficit over the past few months, but not because it has been indulging in an increase in spending. The 12-month moving sum of program expenditures declined in the first three months of the year; the deficit is due to an even more rapid decline in revenues.
eta: Okay, the GM/Chrysler bailouts should probably be added, since the loans haven't been written off yet. But still.